Within the last hour, the Dow has lost about 400 points, or about 3% of its total value. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are also both down.

However, the NewsFutures prediction market seems to have predicted this decline. Beginning as recently as 9 hours ago, the prediction that the stock market would increase today began to see a spike in volume of trades, driving the value of the prediction down. However, the prediction had been declining steadily in light trading even before this spike in volume.

Very, very interesting. This drop in the real Dow only began at about 3:00pm EST. But the prediction that the market would increase has been falling dramatically for at least the last nine to ten hours. Did NewsFutures predict the correction? If we had been watching this prediction market today, should we have expected what occurred about 45 minutes ago now?

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