From Stratfor today:
March 12, 2009
Vladimir Dvorkin, a retired general and participant in US-Soviet disarmament talks in the 1970s and 1980s, and now head of the Center for International Security at the Institute for World Economy and International Relations in Moscow, said Iran is ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã…â€œone or two yearsÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã‚Â away from producing a nuclear weapon, Agence France-Presse reported March 12. Dvorkin, stressing his views are independent of the Russian government, speculated that only a lack of weapons-grade uranium is holding Iran back.
So, that makes the IAEA, Israelis, a Russian thought leader, and our Chairman of the Joint Chiefs (at least), who assess that the Iranians are getting close. SecDef Gates and the writers of our NIE’s are not yet convinced.
But maybe this isn’t surprising? After getting intelligence on Iraq WMD so wrong, could the U.S. really lead the charge in making these kinds of claims, even if it wanted to? Doubtful. It will have to rely on others to raise the alarm on this one. [h/t Cynthia]