A recent article in the journal, Studies in Intelligence, takes up the issue of using prediction markets as intelligence tools, a topic that I have wondered about myself recently.Towards the end of the article, the author takes up the issue of whether or not an internal, Intelligence Community prediction market should be a real-money or a play-money market, noting many of the … [Read more...] about Prediction Markets as Intelligence Tools
Predictions
Stock Market and Prediction Markets
Within the last hour, the Dow has lost about 400 points, or about 3% of its total value. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are also both down. However, the NewsFutures prediction market seems to have predicted this decline. Beginning as recently as 9 hours ago, the prediction that the stock market would increase today began to see a spike in volume of trades, driving the value of … [Read more...] about Stock Market and Prediction Markets
Testing Prediction Market Widgets
Testing a widget from the prediction market called Inkling. Cool if/when it works. Seems a little difficult to use. How might prediction markets be used for research and/or intelligence gathering? Here's one from NewsFutures on the probability of a U.S. attack on Iran in the near future: Looks like those trading on NewsFutures have been feeling a little optimistic since … [Read more...] about Testing Prediction Market Widgets