Testing a widget from the prediction market called Inkling. Cool if/when it works. Seems a little difficult to use.

How might prediction markets be used for research and/or intelligence gathering?

Here’s one from NewsFutures on the probability of a U.S. attack on Iran in the near future:

Looks like those trading on NewsFutures have been feeling a little optimistic since this prediction was first listed; it’s value is down from its starting price of 60 to 35.

There are several markets dealing with Iran over at Intrade.com.

Though it looks like the the traders over at Intrade have also become more optimistic recently, they still see the possibility for an attack on Iran increasing as the year moves on.